One of the simplest models of infection is the SIR model, a set of differential equations that describes how people in a population infect each other and eventually recover, transitioning between three compartments, from Susceptible to Infected to Recovered, although, because the model uses “Recovered” as the category for people who have died, some people … Read more
The three coronavirus metrics that most jurisdictions are publishing are cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The number of cases depends on the extent of testing, but the number of hospitalizations and deaths do not, at least not to the same extent, because while there are a lot of people who may have an infection and not … Read more
Pedestrian counts from San Diego’s smart streetlamps indicates that San Diegans responded strongly to stay at home orders, but the data has some weaknesses.
Know your S curves from your bell curves: A short primer on the main types of curves we see in plots of coronavirus data.
It looks like San Diego has hit its peak in new coronavirus cases, with a notable downturn in the rate of change of daily cases.
The IHME coronavirus projections are important and useful, but it is important to understand their limitations.
Similar to the previous post about case growth rates in US states, growth rate are declining in most countries. The global average for the decline in growth rates is about .9% per day. Extrapolating this decline would result in countries hitting zero new cases per day at about 40 days from when then hit 100 … Read more
Some US states, like California, have declining growth rates in COVID19 cases, others, like Massachusetts, are in trouble. This chart shows, per state and for the US, the trend in the growth rates of COVID19 cases. Each day, the number of cases is increasing, but by a smaller percentage each day. If today had 30% … Read more
We are scraping the San Diego County coronavirus cases page to generate a historical dataset. See the data repository for a link to the file.
Do you know Biotech companies, non profits, or other organizations who are working on the front lines of the pandemic who need professional help with managing, cleaning or publishing data? The San Diego Regional Data Library and Civic Knowledge are offering pro-bono and low-cost help with pandemic-related small data projects. Some examples of the work … Read more